IHS Technology analysts top 10 predictions for the 2015 global photovoltaic (PV) market
EL SEGUNDO, CALIF. (January 8, 2014) – While 2014 remained a challenging time for the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry, it marked an inflection point in the market’s development. According to a new white paper issued by the IHS Solar service at information and analytics provider IHS (NYSE: IHS), solar PV demand grew at a double-digit pace, largely due to policies in China and Japan; yet conditions remained extremely tough for suppliers.
“Through mergers, acquisitions and bankruptcies, the supplier base consolidated further, as companies struggled with debt-laden balance sheets and a rapid shift in their customer base away from their traditional markets,” said Ash Sharma, senior research director for solar at IHS. “All signs point to a strengthening recovery of the solar industry in 2015, even if the recovery itself remains incredibly fragile.”
Following are the top 10 predictions for 2015, from the IHS solar research team:
1. Global solar PV demand is forecast to grow by up to 25 percent in 2015. Due to the ongoing cost reductions for solar PV, IHS forecasts that installation demand will grow at a double-digit rate of 16 to 25 percent and installations in the range of 53 to 57 gigawatts (GW). Geographically, the largest markets again will be China, Japan and the United States, while the largest contributors in terms of absolute growth will be China, the United States and India.
2. Concentrated Photovoltaic Solar (CPV) to experience accelerated growth. Starting in 2015, IHS forecasts an accelerated CPV market expansion of 37 percent, to reach approximately 250 megawatts (MW) of new installations. Installations of both high-concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) and low-concentration photovoltaic (LCPV) systems will expand at double-digit percentages every year through 2020.
3. Distributed PV (DPV) in China to fall behind expectations, but continues to grow. With challenges ahead for China’s ambitious plans for DPV, IHS forecasts the country will struggle to achieve it aggressive targets. Even so, the market is clearly beginning to build momentum, and policies and business models are helping to accelerate growth. IHS forecasts that DPV installations in China will reach 4.7 GW in 2015, an increase of nearly 20 percent from 2014.
4. Grid-connected PV energy storage installations to triple. The PV power system is evolving away from the traditional and relatively simple system of one-directional flow—from large-scale conventional generators through transmission and distribution lines to consumers, to an increasingly complex mix of small, distributed generators and consumers at all points in the electricity grid. Annual installations of grid-connected PV systems, paired with energy storage, will grow more than threefold, to reach 775 MW in 2015.
5. Emerging markets mature – Chile will follow South Africa to reach 1 GW of installed PV capacity. IHS forecasts that Chile will be the next emerging market, after South Africa, to reach the milestone of 1 GW in installed PV solar capacity. Aside from Chile, other new emerging markets poised for rapid growth in 2015 are Jordan, the Philippines and Honduras. Conversely, great uncertainty still surrounds Mexico, Brazil and Turkey.
6. Monocrystalline technology to increase market share. Although monocrystalline technology will not threaten multicrystalline domination in the near future, IHS expects it will steadily gain share, benefiting from growth on rooftop installations, as well as increasing demand for higher-efficiency products. IHS forecasts the monocrystalline share of global cell production will increase to 27 percent in 2015, up from 24 percent in 2014.
7. Systems up to 100 kilowatts to account for 30 percent of global installations. There is potential in store for DPV in both established and emerging markets around the world. IHS forecasts distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems—i.e., those sized 100 kilowatts (kW) or smaller—to account for 30 percent of global installations in 2015, with 15.7 GW projected, up from 13.2 GW in 2014. The largest market for these installations in 2015 will be Japan, with DPV accounting for nearly 70 percent of installations. The U.S. is also expected to install more than 2.2 GW of DPV in 2015, as net-metering and third-party ownership models continue to drive this market.
8. Second quarter (Q2) halt to U.K. utility-scale PV to trigger new wave of consolidation among European Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. The clock is running down for integrators of large-sized solar systems in Europe, with the expiration of a U.K. incentive program bringing an end to a boom in utility-scale installations and triggering a flurry of consolidation. The U.K. in 2015 will dominate the utility-scale PV landscape in Europe by installing 1.4 GW of ground-mount systems, primarily under the renewable obligation certificates (ROC) scheme.
9. Three-phase string inverters to account for one-third of global solar inverter revenue. Driven by attractive prices in key PV markets, global revenue for three-phase string inverters is forecast in 2015, to reach more than $2.2 billion, equivalent to one-third of worldwide revenue for the overall market for inverters. Estimated shipments next year of three-phase string inverters will exceed 15 GW, up 31 percent from 2014. A surge is expected in important markets like China and Japan, whose combined shipments will account for 7.6 GW of the total.
10. California in 2015 will become global leader in solar power penetration. IHS expects that by the end of 2015, California—the largest renewable power market in the United States—will attain worldwide leadership in market share of annual power generation received from solar PV. Following another year of strong utility-scale and DPV additions, solar power is expected to provide more than 10 percent of California’s annual power generation in 2015. This penetration level would push California above other leading global solar markets, such as Germany and Italy, in terms of the share of total power generation sourced from solar PV.
New analysis by the Worldwatch Institute examines global trends in solar power
Washington, D.C.—-The year 2013 saw record-breaking growth for solar electricity generation as the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) markets continued to grow. With over 39 gigawatts installed worldwide, the PV solar market represented one third of all newly-added renewable energy capacity, write Worldwatch’s Max Lander and Climate and Energy Intern Xiangyu Wu in the Worldwatch Institute’s latest Vital Signs Online trend (www.worldwatch.org).
Solar PV installations nearly matched those of hydropower and, for the first time, outpaced wind additions. Even though photovoltaics continue to dwarf CSP capacity, the CSP market also had another year of impressive growth. By the end of 2013, a total of 19 countries had CSP plants installed or under construction.
Consumption of power from PV and CSP plants increased by 30 percent globally in 2013 to reach 124.8 terawatt-hours. Europe accounted for the majority of global solar power consumption (67 percent), followed by Asia (23.9 percent) and North America (8.1 percent). Worldwide, solar consumption equaled 0.5 percent of electricity generation from all sources.
Despite the record growth in installations, global investments in solar electricity were down 20 percent (from $142.9 billion in 2012 to $113.7 billion in 2013), reflecting a significant decrease in costs. In July 2014, global PV module spot prices reached an all-time low of $0.63 per watt. For the first time, Asia overtook Europe as the largest regional market.
While global PV module production increased by only 3 percent over 2012, module shipments jumped by 24 percent, signaling an easing of oversupply problems.
Prospects are bright for solar development as prices continue to fall and approach grid parity in an increasing number of contexts. Rooftop solar is already less expensive per megawatt-hour than retail electricity in Australia, Brazil, Denmark, Italy, and Germany. Estimates now also show that PV has become price-competitive without subsidies in 15 countries. For 2014, solar installations are estimated to reach 40-51 gigawatts.
Country Highlights from the Report:
~ China installed 12.9 gigawatts of PV, the most ever installed in one year by any country. The country’s momentous expansion was fueled largely by its feed-in tariff (FIT) program, which supports large, grid-connected utility-scale projects as well as distributed generation projects. However, grid connections are struggling to keep up with the rapid pace of China’s PV deployment.
~ Europe installed close to 11 GW of PV. This represented the second annual decline in installations after peaking at 22.3 GW in 2011. In Germany, a reduction of FIT rates and an increase in regulations for utility-scale projects contributed to the fall in installations.
~ North America added 5.2 GW of PV. The United States installed the third most PV worldwide, with 4.8 GW.
~ In Central and South America, solar development has been sluggish. Despite power consumption more than doubling in 2013, the region still accounts for a small fraction of the world’s solar power.
~ The Middle East and Africa had little PV activity, with the exception of Israel and South Africa, which added 420 MW and 75 MW, respectively.
About the Worldwatch Institute:
Worldwatch is an independent research organization based in Washington, D.C. that works on energy, resource, and environmental issues. The Institute’s State of the World report is published annually in more than a dozen languages. For more information, visit www.worldwatch.org.
Scottsdale, AZ – December 19, 2013 – As the holiday travel season begins, Kyocera Solar Inc. today announced that its industry-leading solar modules were selected to power the first phase of a 2.5MW parking lot canopy installation at Tucson International Airport. The 1MW first phase of the photovoltaic (PV) array, which offsets about a fifth of the terminal complex’s total power needs, is now operational and a dedication ceremony will be held at 11 am Mountain Time, December 20.
The project converts the abundant sunshine in “The Old Pueblo” into renewable energy powering the airport’s main terminal. It’s part of the airport’s ongoing environmental efforts, utilizing $5.7 million in funding awarded by the Federal Aviation Administration and $280,000 contributed by the Arizona Department of Transportation to offset a federal grant matching requirement.
Collaboration with Natural Power & Energy helped ensure that the system was properly sized for the airport’s power output and glare avoidance requirements. By working closely with Tucson-based contractor Barker-Morrissey Contracting, the Design-Build team was able to meet the tight installation deadlines of the 5-acre first phase with time to spare.
“Airports are an ideal location for solar canopies because of the large amounts of space they can cover, additionally serving as desired shade to cars parked for hours or even days,” said Steve Hill, president, Kyocera Solar Inc. “We are glad to have completed this first phase before the busy travel season; it’s a nice holiday bonus to know that part of the electricity usage in the main terminal is being offset by the parking lot’s large solar array. Kyocera Solar is proud to power this important project in our home state.”
The solar canopy structure is a 20-foot tall curved, open-lattice design comprised exclusively of efficient, durable Kyocera modules that create shade for parking spaces. Vegetated “green walls” are also planned, which will use live plants to create a cooling microclimate effect in the parking area. There is no additional charge for the parking spaces under the solar canopy.
This project’s federal grant is part of a program that provides funding for airport projects that promote energy efficiency under the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012.
“Kyocera’s responsibilities with every project are to assist throughout the lifecycle of that installation,” Hill stated. “Our technical expertise in addition to our 38 years of high quality module production experience adds value and can help reduce project costs. Kyocera’s success depends on our customer’s success.”
Construction on the main public parking lot began in May 2013, kicking off a three-phase installation expected to be completed in 2-3 years. Work has already begun on phase 2 in the remaining 7 acres of the parking area.
Tucson joins Chicago’s Midway as another major airport going green with Kyocera. Midway’s Quick Turn Around rental car washing and refueling facility was outfitted with Kyocera photovoltaic solar modules in October 2013.
To learn more about Kyocera Solar Solutions for both residential and commercial projects, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org or 800-223-9580.
BOULDER, COLO. – (October 15, 2013) Three new community-owned solar PV facilities by community solar pioneer Clean Energy Collective (CEC) began delivering power to ratepayers in Colorado this week, bringing to 10 the number of shared utility-scale arrays operating in the state. An additional 10 facilities, about 5 MW, are in the development pipeline for Colorado.
The resort town of Breckenridge, Colo. is now host to two 500 kW community-owned solar facilities that will serve Xcel Energy customers in Summit County. Both systems were sold out before construction was complete. A 400 kW community-owned system perched on a former Air Force hangar is also now delivering clean power to Denver County ratepayers. Combined with the 106 kW original array on the historic Hangar 2 building, this creates the nation’s largest building integrated PV (BIPV) installation at over 500 kW.
Introduced in 2010, CEC’s community-owned solar model (COS) was designed to provide every ratepayer in a utility territory the opportunity to purchase individual solar panels in a shared, locally-sited, utility-scale array. This innovation opens up solar PV ownership to renters, people in multi-dwelling buildings, properties with poor solar exposure, and individuals of all income levels. Because they are sited and maintained for maximum production, utility-scale facilities provide more energy for longer than smaller, individual systems, allowing for a faster and greater financial return.
“Our model is not supplanting people who want to and can put solar on their house, but rather opening the market to the other 75% of electric users who have until now faced insurmountable barriers,” said CEC founder Paul Spencer.
While community solar makes PV energy available to everyone on the grid, real traction for rapid deployment has come from its broad appeal for utilities. Large IOU’s, municipal utilities, and rural cooperatives can add solar to their mix with a turn-key solution. It provides in-network, reliable, utility-scale clean energy generation at reasonable power rates that applies nicely to RPS requirements without capital outlay or responsibility for monitoring, customer administration, operations and maintenance.
CEC has partnered with six utilities so far in Colorado, including 11 facilities rewarded through Xcel Energy’s Solar*Rewards Communities program. Once complete, access to solar ownership will be available to more than 95% of Colorado ratepayers. CEC has also installed the state’s first community-owned solar gardens for New Mexico, Minnesota, and Vermont, and has topped $40 million in facility developments.
“CEC has cracked the code, opening a consumer solar market that is four-times larger than the onsite solar marketplace as we have traditionally known it,” said Nikhil Garg, Vice President of Black Coral Capital, a Boston-based investment firm focused on cleantech and alternative energy.
About Clean Energy Collective (CEC)
Colorado-based Clean Energy Collective is a developer of community-based renewable energy facilities and a national leader in community power generation. CEC pioneered the model of delivering clean power-generation through utility-scale facilities that are collectively owned by participating utility customers, establishing the first community-owned solar garden in the country near El Jebel, Colorado. Today, CEC has 23 community-owned facilities online or in development, representing more than 10 MW of community-sited clean energy.
ATLANTA, GA—June 19, 2012—Renusol America, headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, has announced that its American-engineered and manufactured mounting system—the Renusol CS60—has been installed at the Aquafil Headquarters in Cartersville as part of one of the state of Georgia’s largest solar PV energy systems. The 400 kWh system will generate 525-thousand KWh of power annually.
The project includes 1,572 Renusol CS60 mounting units and 1,572 of Suniva’s Optimus 250 W panels. Suniva is headquartered in Norcross, Georgia. Radiance Solar, a Georgia owned and operated solar contracting company, installed the system, which is interconnected to the Cartersville Electric System.
Aquafil, a chemical and textile firm and leader in carpet fiber technology, is known for producing fibers made from 100-percent recycled materials. The company takes its commitment to sustainability one step further with the installation of this solar system on top of its 234,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Cartersville.
The Renusol CS60 represents the latest in American technology and is the first-ever ‘one unit per one PV panel’ mounting system, which is changing how solar arrays are deployed on flat rooftops in America by eliminating the layout restrictions inherent to traditional, rigid aluminum racking rails. Manufactured in the Midwest, the Renusol CS60 offers several solutions developed specifically for the US solar market.
The Renusol CS60 innovation also incorporates the latest groundbreaking American-based wind tunnel study results showing how wind forces vary across a roof, making the flexible rooftop panel placement solution of the Renusol CS60 even more valuable.
“The Aquafil USA solar rooftop installation is emblematic of how the deployment of solar energy creating and keeping jobs right here in Georgia and across America , said Renusol America CEO Bart Leusink.
About Renusol America
Renusol America is a leading innovator in flat-roof and pitch-roofed mounting systems for Solar PV modules in the US solar industry. A U.S. company with systems installed in 18 states, Renusol America provides sales, service, and customer support from its headquarters in Atlanta , Georgia and operates full-scale warehouse and distribution facilities across the country. Building upon its heritage of excellence in German engineering with American innovation, in 2011 Renusol America introduced the groundbreaking, American-made Renusol CS60—the first one piece mounting system for PV panels. The company is part of the Centrosolar Group, a publicly traded company on the German stock exchange, and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Renusol GmbH, a market leader in Europe with more than 500MW of solar power mounted on Renusol systems. More information at www.renusolamerica.com
U.S. government antidumping penalties on imports of photovoltaic (PV) cells from China could suspend nearly half of solar module shipments to North America this year, impacting pricing, inventories and project timelines, according to an IHS iSuppli PV Perspectives report from information and analytics provider IHS (NYSE: IHS).
The U.S. Department of Commerce on May 17 announced a preliminary determination in its antidumping duty investigation of imports of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from China. These cells are used in modules that form complete solar systems installed on houses, buildings or commercial PV-generation facilities.
Before this announcement was made, IHS estimated that 2 gigawatts (GW) worth of solar modules shipped into North America in 2012 would be imported from Chinese manufacturers. This would have represented as much as 60 percent of the market for North American use.
Given the high tariffs proposed by the Commerce Department, many Chinese players will suspend shipments to North America while business plans are modified to account for the tariff. This could represent the temporary removal of up to 1.5GW worth of stopped shipments to the region, accounting for 45 percent of the total market in 2012
“The Commerce Department action will have a major impact on the North American solar market, constraining supplies and driving up prices for modules and systems,” said Mike Sheppard, photovoltaics analyst with IHS. “Even when alternative supply lines are adopted, the penalties are likely to add as much as 12 percent to the cost of solar modules, lowering the average return on investment (ROI) for solar systems in the region by as much as 2.5 percent.”
Solar Flare Up
The Commerce Department preliminarily determined that Chinese producers/exporters sold solar cells in the United States at dumping margins ranging from 31.14 percent to 249.96 percent.
The Commerce Department’s mandatory respondents were Suntech-Power and Trina Solar, and these two companies were subject to unique tariff rates of 31.22 and 31.14 percent, respectively. All other companies singled out in the investigation received an average duty of 31.2 percent. However, Chinese companies not singled out in the investigation will receive an even larger 250 percent duty.
The reasoning the Commerce Department gave for the large tariff on these players is to deter Chinese companies from forming new joint-venture companies with existing firms that are not on the list of penalized entities.
The duties to be imposed are preliminary in nature and will need to be finalized by both the Commerce Department and International Trade Commission (ITC) through final determinations on October 9 and November 23 of this year. However, these duties will be enacted retroactively 90 days prior to the date ofthe preliminary decision in February 2012 if they are imposed.
The Outsourcing Option
Interestingly, the Commerce Department included this statement in its announcement:
“Modules, laminates, and panels produced in a third country from cells produced in the PRC are covered by this investigation; however, modules, laminates, and panels produced in the PRC from cells produced in a third country are not covered by this investigation.”
For the Chinese module suppliers, this represents an opportunity to sidestep the tariffs.
“The Commerce Department statement means that many Chinese cell manufacturers will be incentivized to outsource to third-party companies in other countries in order to get around the duties,” Sheppard said. “A popular option will be to utilize cell specialists operating in Taiwan. This will allow the Chinese players to avoid the high tariffs ranging from 34 to 250 percent. However, such a strategy also will add 10 to 12 percent additional cost for the modules, based on the margins required from the third-party contract manufacturers and from additional logistics charges.”
The impact of the outsourcing to Taiwan will be somewhat more limited on solar system prices compared to module prices. System pricing behaves in a different manner from module pricing given the additional cost elements involved.
Accounting for a 10 percent increase in total module cost based on the cell outsourcing strategy mentioned above, the cost of installation for a ground solar system rises to $2.65 per watt, up from $2.56 per watt.
As a result, the ROI for solar installations is expected to only decline by 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent based on the cell outsourcing strategy.
“This reduced ROI means some investors may think twice when valuing other vehicles to put their money,” Sheppard said. “However, most investors will not be deterred.”
Solar module inventory levels will quickly deplete in North America based on the lower shipments from Chinese players, increasing module prices as a result given that Chinese modules were also the most aggressively priced. These price increases will be passed onto the system level, negatively affecting ROI for projects installed this year.
Learn More > IHS iSuppli PV Perspectives
About IHS (www.ihs.com)
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Businesses and governments in more than 165 countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS employs more than 5,500 people in more than 30 countries around the world.
Solis Partners, a leading provider of commercial solar power systems, has announced that it has completed the installation of a 243-kilowatt solar photovoltaic (PV) system at Riephoff Sawmill. Located in Monmouth County in the borough of Upper Freehold, N.J., the Riephoff facility is New Jersey’s largest hardwood sawmill.
The system was designed, engineered and constructed by Manasquan, N.J.-based Solis Partners and comprises of two ground-mounted systems — a 165-kilowatt array that generates power for the sawmill and a 78-kilowatt array that generates power for additional facilities on the property, which include a barn for livestock and an aquafarm.
Located at 763 Route 524, the Riephoff Sawmill is a family-owned business that has been supplying the Northeast with high quality lumber products for the industrial, construction and manufacturing industries for more than 45 years. The two solar systems are housed within the company’s 7-acre yard that is used for scaling and storing logs.
“We are thrilled to announce the completion of this innovative project,” said Jamie Hahn, co-founder and managing director of Solis Partners. “This project allows Riephoff to lower its operating costs and acts as a hedge against the rising costs of electricity, which is especially important in a state that has some of the nation’s highest electricity rates. The ability to produce clean, renewable energy is also very important to Riephoff as an organization reliant on the natural environment for raw materials.”
The 15,000-square-foot mill, which includes a 56-inch circular saw and a 20-foot frick carriage, a device used to pass large pieces of lumber through the saw, as well as the pumps needed for aquafarming, requires a lot of electricity. The solar PV system offsets approximately 100 percent of Riephoff’s electricity consumption, which equates to approximately $36,000 in annual savings.
Built with 1,036 solar PV panels, the solar system will produce approximately 300,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity in the first year of operation. This equates to the reduction of more than 456,000 pounds of CO2 emissions, which is the equivalent of offsetting the power demand of 26 residential homes or removing 40 cars from the road each year.
“We care about the environment,” said John Falconio, principal at Riephoff. “Because our company relies on natural resources, we continuously implement projects and methods that are environmentally responsible. However, the decision to pursue a solar project was easy because there is a strong business case in addition to the environmental benefits.”
Riephoff, which produces products from fencing and posts to hardwood crane mats, which are used to support the weight of a crane, is very resourceful in its operations. Riephoff buys approximately 98 percent of its timber locally and harvests all its wood responsibly, using consultants — when necessary — and techniques that best ensure the rejuvenation of the trees.
“There’s a big misconception that when you cut timber it never grows back, but it’s quite the opposite, “ said Falconio. “We cut timber in a way that we can continue to do so for years to come. And whatever we cut, we use – the only thing we don’t sell is the buzz and sawdust. Scrap pieces get recycled into landscape mulch, sawdust goes for horse bedding and anything that can’t be sold we use in our wood burning stove. When managed appropriately, timber is truly a renewable resource.”
“In this business, to stay competitive, you have to be as efficient as possible,” said Falconio. “This solar system is an extension of the efficiency strategies we employ throughout the business, and with plans for expansion with our aquafarming business, the timing was perfect.”
About Solis Partners
Solis Partners is a leading turnkey provider of solar power systems for commercial, industrial, utility and nonprofit clients. Solis specializes in financing, constructing and operating distributed solar power plants that enable clients to meet their long-term energy needs while reducing operating costs and addressing their carbon liabilities. Solis is committed to providing its clients with the most efficient and cost effective path to solar. Solis Partners is headquartered in Manasquan, N.J. For more information, please call (732) 800-0052, or visit www.solispartners.com.
About Riephoff Sawmill
Family-owned since 1964, Riephoff Sawmill, based out of Upper Freehold, N.J., is New Jersey’s largest hardwood sawmill. Servicing clients throughout the northeast and Canada, Riephoff offers top quality lumber products for industrial, construction and manufacturing industries. For more information about Riephoff and its products, please visit www.riephoffsawmill.com.