Solar Market Set to Continue Expansion in 2011
El Segundo, Calif., August 3, 2010—Despite concerns that reductions in government incentives will halt growth in installations of solar Photovoltaic (PV) systems in 2011, iSuppli Corp. predicts the global PV market will continue to expand next year as falling prices make solar energy more attractive, according to iSuppli Corp.
Global PV system installations in 2011 will amount to 20.2 Gigawatts, up 42.7 percent from 14.2GW in 2010. While this represents a significant slowdown from 97.9 percent growth in 2009, it remains an impressive performance in light of expected rollbacks in subsidy programs from various governments.
The attached figure presents iSuppli’s forecast of annual global PV installations.
“Because of the cuts in Feed-in-Tariffs (FITS) in Germany and Italy next year, and the budget concerns in Greece, Italy and Spain, PV installations in 2011 will slow somewhat compared to the blistering pace of 2010,” said Stefan de Haan, senior analyst for iSuppli. “Furthermore, the weakening of the euro versus the Chinese yuan will artificially inflate prices for solar cells and other system components in Europe. But contrary to some observers’ fears, installations will continue to rise at a prodigious rate next year. Modestly falling pricing for solar cells and complete PV systems are expected to more than mitigate the negative impact of the falling FITs and rising yuan.”
Price triumphs
Assuming the U.S. dollar/euro exchange rate remains above $1.20/€, iSuppli predicts crystalline silicon solar cell prices will not increase in 2010 and instead will decline by 5 percent compared to 2010.
Prices for installations in 2011 will fall slightly more, decreasing by approximately 10 percent on average in Europe. Installation prices will decline to compensate for reduced subsidies in the largest markets of Germany, Italy and France.
Because of this decline, the average Return On Investment (ROI) for PV installation projects is expected to remain attractive and to continue to stimulate substantial demand. Even with Italy’s FIT cut of 10 to 27 percent split over the year, the ROI for solar installations completed in the country during 2011 will average 10 percent for major market segments. In Germany, assuming a 13 percent FIT cut, the projected ROI will be in the range of 8 to 10 percent.
Solar upside
With the ROI still positive, leading solar countries will still experience robust growth in PV installations in 2011, although at a slower rate than in 2010.
No. 1 solar energy country Germany will install 9.5GW worth of PV systems in 2011. This will represent a 43.9 percent increase from 6.6GW in 2010, down from 73.4 percent in 2010.
No. 2 solar generator Italy will install 2GW worth of PV systems in 2011, up 53.6 percent from 1.3GW in 2010.
The United States will install the third largest total of PV systems in 2011, at 1.9GW, up 79.3 percent from 1.1GW in 2010. This is down from 152.3 percent growth in 2010.
In fourth and fifth places, respectively, France and Japan will experience healthy expansion, with both countries crossing the 1GW threshold for new installations for the first time.
A notable drop-out during 2011 will be the Czech Republic as its installations plunge to 150MW to 250MW for the year, down from 1GW in 2010. The country’s precipitous decline will be driven by new FIT legislation reducing the current tariffs. Foreign investors drove the market in 2009 and 2010, creating a solar boom comparable to that in Spain in 2008. iSuppli expects that the Czech Republic’s government will take measures to drastically reduce the amount of new solar installations.
Solar event in 2012
Global PV installation growth is set to undergo a major deceleration in 2012, with a rise of only 2.8 percent to 20.8GW for the year.
“iSuppli believes 2012 will be the year when the PV industry weans itself from the generosity of German subsidies,” de Haan said. “The German market will cool off and expand by only 4 to 5GW per year for the next several years. We believe the government aims to keep an orderly progression in order to achieve an ultimate goal of around 80GW of installed PV capacity.”
To learn more, see iSuppli’s report entitled: Global PV Market to Double in 2010, Germany Leads the Way.
Solar Power for the Farm or Ranch
I’ve been working on a side project for one of the ranches I work with to install some form of renewable energy. Due to the ranch’s location, we have opted to install a photovoltaic (PV) solar energy production system. The ranch gets lots of sun every year, and less predictable wind.
Many of you with livestock are probably familiar with small scale PV systems that charge the batteries that electrify your cattle/livestock fences. Some of you might also have small solar panels on metering and reporting systems for outlying wells, your RTK systems, or weather stations. In my case, we are looking at a much larger system for the entire ranch including 3 homes and a large implementation and equipment barn.
Why Go to the Hassle?
Its simple; you don’t have to be a big environmentalist for a PV system to make sense on your farm or ranch. All you need is a willingness to making long term investments that improve your operations bottom line. (I’ve never met a farmer that didn’t make long term investments in his/her operation) PV systems eventually lead to “free power” after they pay for themselves and a typical system can last 25 to 30 years. With current incentive programs, PV systems are more affordable than ever which leads to quicker payoffs. This means a short period of time until the system actually starts providing free power to your agribusiness or farm enterprise. In some cases we are talking about 4 to 6 year pay offs.
Depending on the overall cost of your system, due to your needs, and depending on the some interesting incentives programs, PV has become relatively cheap. Part of what contributes to the “cheapness equation” is your local power costs. These have been historically low in the US, but as we know from last year’s fuel prices, the US really isn’t in control of our energy costs. Much of the power generated in the US is created by burning fossil fuels that we buy from foreign nations.
USDA Grants REAP Rewards
If you are contemplating a similar alternative renewable energy system installation for your farm or ranch, you should know that the Rural Development division of the USDA is currently accepting applications for grant money and guaranteed loans under programs called REAP/RES/EEI. (Rural Energy For America Program Grants/Renewable Energy Systems/Energy Efficiency Improvement Program) The deadline is July 31 2009, so you’re going to have to get moving on this one.
According to the USDA, “REAP/RES/EEI Grants Program will provide grants for energy audits and renewable energy development assistance. It also provides funds to agricultural producers and rural small businesses to purchase and install renewable energy systems and make energy efficiency improvements.”
How much are the REAP grants?
The grants are awarded on a competitive basis and can be up to 25% of total eligible project costs. Grants are limited to $500,000 for renewable energy systems and $250,000 for energy efficiency improvements. Grant requests as low as $2,500 for renewable energy systems and $1,500 for energy efficiency improvements will be considered. At least 20% of the grant funds awarded must be for grants of $20,000 or less.
Who is eligible?
The program is designed to assist farmers, ranchers and rural small businesses that are able to demonstrate financial need. All agricultural producers, including farmers and ranchers, who gain 50% or more of their gross income from the agricultural operations are eligible. Small businesses that are located in a rural area can also apply. Rural electric cooperatives may also be eligible to apply.
What kinds of projects are eligible?
Most rural projects that reduce energy use and result in savings for the agricultural producer or small business are eligible as energy efficiency projects. These include projects such as retrofitting lighting or insulation, or purchasing or replacing equipment with more efficiency units. Eligible renewable energy projects include projects that produce energy from wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, hydro power and hydrogen-based sources. The projects can produce any form of energy including, heat, electricity, or fuel.
For all projects, the system must be located in a rural area, must be technically feasible, and must be owned by the applicant.
How does the B&I Guaranteed Loan Program compare to the Rural Energy for America Program Guaranteed Loan and Grant?
How Can I Apply
To apply for funding for the REAP Grant Program, please contact your Rural Development State Office.
Combined Incentives = Big Savings
Combine the REAP program with other existing federal incentives and state programs (state programs vary) and you might just get a system for pennies on the dollar. As a result of the recent stimulus legislation, there is currently a 30% federal incentive which can be taken as a tax credit or in a cash rebate form. The rebate is to be paid by the Treasury within 60 days of the date on which the solar equipment is installed or the date the owner submits an application, whichever is later. Installation must occur prior to 2011. -If you haven’t looked at solar in a while, this is a big new change! There are also interesting equipment depreciation benefits. Also, be sure to check with your state government to see what they are offering. Many states are racing right now to be called the “greenest” and are coming out with some substantial buyer’s incentive programs.
In the case I am working on, the Fed is providing for 30%, the state is providing 35% and IF the REAP incentives are granted (questionable in our case) the rancher will receive an additional 25% incentive which combines to a total of 90% off the purchase and installation price. Wow!
• For more information on the REAP program, contact your local Energy Coordinator
• For more information on State Programs visit http://www.dsireusa.org
• For more information on Federal Programs visit http://www.energy.gov/taxbreaks.htm
Progress Expands Solar Energy Rebate Program
From money.cnn.com
Progress Energy Inc. (PGN) said Wednesday that it has launched an expanded solar energy program in the Carolinas and Florida, offering incentives for customers to install solar photovoltaic panels and water heating systems.
The solar program, called SunSense, is expected to increase the use of solar energy in the Carolinas and Florida by over 100 megawatts over the next decade, Progress said. The cost of implementing the program will have “minimal impact” on customer bills, according to the company.
Progress, based in Raleigh, N.C., plans to offer rebates of $1.50 to $2 per watt for residential PV systems, about 25% of the installation cost. Incentives will also be offered for commercial PV installations and for residential and commercial solar water heating systems.
Solar energy a possibility in Southlake
By Chrisitina Rowland, Staff writer, SCNTX.com
The city of Southlake currently has no ordinance on the books concerning solar energy systems. They are prohibited in Southlake.
That could soon be changing, however. There was a citywide SPIN meeting Monday night to inform the public about a proposed ordinance that will go before planning and zoning April 9.
Daniel Cortez, a member of the city planning department, gave Monday’s presentation and answered questions for citizens.
He said the interest in solar energy came about last summer when some residents inquired with the city about it. They decided not to move forward, but it made the city begin to weigh such items for the future.
Although there is currently no one asking the city about permits for solar energy systems, the city is trying to be proactive and put an ordinance in place.
The new ordinance would address both solar PV systems and solar thermal systems. The solar PV systems generate solar energy for a home, while a thermal system heats home water.
According to the PowerPoint presentation, a solar thermal system in Texas can generate up to 90 percent of annual water heating needs.
The initial cost of either system can be expensive, but the federal government does offer some assistance for those wanting to switch to solar energy. The government will cover 30 percent of the cost of the system. In Texas, property taxes will not be raised if the system increases your property value. In addition, Oncor offers customer rebates of up to $2.46 per installed watt of system size for those who want to use solar power.
There are also similar incentive programs for commercial businesses wanting to be greener.
For those residents wanting to use solar energy, they would have to apply for a specific use permit and meet certain requirements.
For residential systems mounted on the ground, they can not exceed a height of 14 feet and must be 10 feet from any property line or building. For roof mounted systems, the ordinance notes it cannot extend beyond the thickness of the panel itself and an addition of up to six inches from the roof.
For commercial use, the units must all be mounted on the roof and must “not extend beyond the lowest point of the parapet wall and shall be installed at the same angle as the roof.”
For both residential and commercial use, the ordinance would require that the system is not to impact any neighboring properties or public right-of-way from nuisance glare. The ordinance also states the solar energy system cannot be installed on a lot until a building permit has been issued or the building is built.
Some residents at the meeting had a problem with this, noting that if they own a lot adjacent to their home with no building on it they could not use that lot to house a solar energy farm.
Public input was gathered at the meeting and will be presented to both planning and zoning and city council as the ordinance moves forward. No changes will come out of Monday’s meeting and it will be presented in the same form to planning and zoning as it was to the public on Monday night.
